I’m wondering whether our Prime Minister has actually done the sums when it comes to this new AUKUS submarine deal. And I’m not just talking about money. It seems we won’t get these submarines for 20 years. That takes us to 2041. Then, the expected lifetime of these subs is 35 years – 55 years in all. So, do we intend to rely on these subs to protect us until 2076?
But a lot can happen in that time. Fifty-five years ago, Australia had just ordered its British Oberon-class submarines. The first, HMAS Oxley (2), arrived in 1967. Obsolete some 20 years later the Oberons were replaced by the Collins class. Now past their use-by date, they are expected by the government to keep us safe for the next 20 years, with a little help from leased boats from elsewhere.
Given the speed with which technological advances are occurring, these new nuclear submarines could be obsolescent even before we get them. The development of driverless vehicles, trains and planes suggests that future submarines could be unmanned, affecting design. No doubt the equipment on board a sub is, like just about everything else, controlled by computers. How long will submarines be able to evade digital surveillance? Could they possibly be vulnerable to digital attacks?
So, can we assume that submarines will remain the stealth vehicle of choice for the world’s navies for the next 40 to 75 years? We already have other forms of stealth weapons. Drones, for instance can be used for surveillance and even weapon delivery. Satellites monitor just about everything on Earth. Will they, sometime in the future, be able to detect the electronic footprints of submarines?
Lynne Cairns 